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By: Rose Harris

NOTE: Details about the assassination attempt against Donald Trump have come forth, including evidence that the shooter also plotted a similar attack against President Joe Biden.  Research by LaGrange College undergraduate Rose Harris, who took my U.S. Government class, shows that the attack of July 13, 2024, was not an isolated incident.  Harris employed our research methodology and tested a hypothesis concerning whether or not threats against U.S. politicians are on the rise or not.  Her paper, which was turned in mid-April of 2024, was prescient for the dangers our politicians and political system face now.  John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange College.

Between July 28, 1924, and September 11th, 2001, 64 American politicians, excluding former presidents, were assassinated, murdered, or otherwise killed by unnatural and non-self-inflicted means.  According to PoliticalGraveyard.com, of these 64 politicians, only one, Eunice A. Stevens, was a woman. Stevens was an alternate delegate to the Democratic National Convention, who died in 1963 after being shot in the throat during a robbery. In the 14 years between the years 1988 and 2001, only six American politicians are listed as having died in a nefarious manner. One was shot in a revenge killing, one was assassinated by a mail bomb, one was kidnapped and stabbed, one was assassinated by his political opponent, and two were killed in terror attacks. With 58 politicians being murdered in the 63 years between 1924 and 1987, and only six experiencing the same sorts of violence in the thirteen years after, it would seem that politicians are becoming safer. Statistically, however, only five of the 58 politicians killed before 1987 were confirmed to have been assassinated for political reasons. One-third of the more modern murders were politically motivated.

While America may be becoming a safer country, with violent crimes having dropped nearly fifty percent since 1990, according to research done by Statista.com, are American political figures becoming bigger targets?  Data reported by CNN confirms that violent threats against political and public officials are at an all-time high, with at least 540 people being federally charged with this crime between 2013 and 2023.  Do these statistics mean that powerful political representatives should be more fearful for their lives than the average American?  Unfortunately for politicians, the answer is yes.  Not only are more American citizens verbally threatening their leaders, but more Americans are vocalizing their support for acts of political violence.  Political violence, as defined by Oxford Reference, is a type of violence that includes acts of terrorism, political riots, assassinations, and more.  In a survey reported by Time Magazine, 23 percent of Americans are supportive of this level of violence.  When nearly one-quarter of the entire country shares a mindset supporting violence directed toward the United States Government and its officials, statistically, government officials and politicians are more likely than the average American to be targeted by violent attacks.

With the inclusion of terrorism under the definition of political violence, the chances of American politicians being killed increased.  Between 2010 and 2021, there were 231 incidents of domestic terrorism in the United States recorded by the Government Accountability Office (Gao.gov).  A third of these, or 73 incidents, are recorded as being motivated by anti-government extremism.  Between 1988 and 2001, two American politicians, Arnold L. Raphel and Jasper Baxter, were killed in terrorist attacks.  As of March 2023, investigations into domestic terrorism increased by 357 percent compared to the previous decade.  As the average American becomes safer, government officials are, statistically, being targeted more.

Should this fact be comforting to the average citizen, or is it a sign of something more concerning?  For members of the United States government, perhaps it should be the latter.