Hawks vs. Heat Prediction & Picks: Line, Spread, Over/Under – December 28

Published 9:16 pm Friday, December 27, 2024

The Atlanta Hawks (16-15) host the Miami Heat (15-13) in a matchup of Southeast Division teams at State Farm Arena, tipping off at 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, December 28, 2024. The Hawks are 2.5-point favorites in the game, the first matchup between the teams this season.

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Hawks vs. Heat Game Info & Odds

  • Date: Saturday, December 28, 2024
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET
  • How to watch on TV: NBA TV, FDSSE, and FDSSUN
  • Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
  • Location: Atlanta, Georgia
  • Venue: State Farm Arena

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Hawks vs. Heat Score Prediction

  • Prediction:
    Heat 115 – Hawks 114

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Spread & Total Prediction for Hawks vs. Heat

  • Pick ATS: Heat (+ 2.5)
  • Computer Predicted Spread: Heat (-0.7)
  • Pick OU:

    Over (226.5)

  • Computer Predicted Total: 228.3
  • The Heat have a 14-14-0 ATS record this season as opposed to the 13-18-0 mark from the Hawks.
  • When the spread is set as 2.5 or more this season, Atlanta (3-10) covers a lower percentage of those games when it is the favorite (23.1%) than Miami (4-4) does as the underdog (50%).
  • Miami and its opponents have gone over the total 53.6% of the time this season (15 out of 28). That’s less often than Atlanta and its opponents have (20 out of 31).
  • As a moneyline favorite this year, the Hawks are 7-7, while the Heat are 4-7 as moneyline underdogs.

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Hawks Performance Insights

  • The Hawks rank eighth in the NBA with 117.2 points per game, but their defense has been less effective, giving up 119.5 points per game (fourth-worst in league).
  • Atlanta is allowing 44 boards per game this season (17th-ranked in NBA), but it has thrived by grabbing 46 rebounds per contest (fourth-best).
  • The Hawks have been piling up assists in 2024-25, ranking third-best in the NBA with 29.7 dimes per contest.
  • Atlanta has struggled in terms of turnovers this season, ranking fourth-worst in the NBA with 15.8 turnovers per game. On the other hand, it ranks fifth-best in the league with 15.9 forced turnovers per contest.
  • The Hawks are 20th in the NBA with 12.6 treys per game this season. Meanwhile, they rank 18th with a 35.1% shooting percentage from downtown.

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Heat Performance Insights

  • In 2024-25, the Heat are 19th in the NBA offensively (111.3 points scored per game) and sixth defensively (108.6 points allowed).
  • At 43.3 rebounds per game and 45.2 rebounds conceded, Miami is 19th and 24th in the league, respectively.
  • This season the Heat are ranked 14th in the league in assists at 25.6 per game.
  • In terms of turnovers, Miami is fourth-best in the NBA in committing them (12.5 per game). It is 10th in forcing them (14.4 per game).
  • The Heat are ninth in the league in 3-pointers made (14.6 per game) and fifth-best in 3-point percentage (37.8%).

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